Probability and Contracts. About Roberto Torretti's Pragmatism
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.22370/rhv2016iss8pp251-268Keywords:
Probability, propensity, contracts, mathematical expectation, TorrettiAbstract
I want to expand the pragmatist view of probability advocated by Roberto Torretti, drawing on the propensity approach. In the first part, I will show how the concept of mathematical expectation originally formalized an Aristotelian principle of justice. In the second half, I will present the game-theoretic approach to probability developed by Shafer and Vovk, showing how it allows us to interpret the original normativity of mathematical expectations. I will finally discuss how this latter view contributes to a pragmatist understanding of probability, as Torretti advocates, although with broader foundations than the physical symmetries of standard propensities.
References
Aquino, T. d. (1985). Suma de Teología III. Parte II-II (a). Madrid: BAC.
Aristóteles, Pallí Bonet, J., & Lledó, E. (1985). Etica nicomáquea ; Etica eudemia. Madrid ,: Gredos.
Barnwell, R. G., & Hendricks, F. (1856). A sketch of the life and times of John De Witt, grand pensionary of Holland, to which is added, his treatise on life annuities. New York,: Pudney & Russell.
Ceccarelli, G. (2001). «Risky business: Theological and canonical thought on insurance from the thirteenth to the seventeenth century». Journal of Medieval and Early Modern Studies, 31(3), 607-658.
Coumet, E. (2002). «La teoría del azar, ¿nació por azar?». Empiria. Revista de metodología de ciencias sociales(3), 33. doi:10.5944/empiria.3.2000.877.
de Mora Charles, M. (1989). Los inicios de la teoría de la probabilidad. Siglos XVI y XVII Bilbao: Universidad del País Vasco.
Domat, J. (1689). Les Loix civiles dans leur ordre naturel París: J. B. Coignard.
Hacking, I. (2006). The emergence of probability : a philosophical study of early ideas about probability, induction and statistical inference (2nd ed.). Cambridge ; New York: Cambridge University Press.
Pascal, B., Aranguren, J. L. L., & Dampierre, C. R. d. (1981). Obras. Madrid: Alfaguara.
Shafer, G., & Vovk, V. (2001). Probability and finance : it’s only a game! New York: J. Wiley & Sons.
Soto, D. d., Carro, V. D., & Instituto de Estudios Políticos (Madrid). (1967). De iustitia et iure libri decem = De la justicia y del derecho : en diez libros (Edición facsimilar de la hecha por D. de Soto en 1556, con su versión castellana correspondiente ed.). Madrid: Instituto de Estudios Políticos.
Suárez, M. (2011). «Propensities and Pragmatism». Journal of Philosophy, 110(2), 61-102.
Sylla, E. D. (2003). «Business ethics, commercial mathematics, and the origins of mathematical probability». History of Political Economy, 35(5), 309-337.
Teira, D. (2006). «On the normative dimension of the St. Petersburg paradox». Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A, 37(2), 210-223.
Torretti, R. (1998). El paraíso de Cantor. La tradición conjuntista en filosofía de la matemática. Santiago de Chile: Universitaria.
Torretti, R. (2003). «El concepto de probabilidad». Diálogos, 38, 407-448.
Torretti, R. (2010). «Respuestas a mis críticos». Teorema, XXIX(1), 147-151.
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication, with the work after publication simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International) that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).
